Fuel Economy Hit 22-Year Low

May 3, 2003
By DANNY HAKIM
www.nytimes.com


DETROIT, May 2 - The average fuel economy of the nation's
cars and trucks fell to its lowest level in 22 years in the
2002 model year, the Environmental Protection Agency
reported today.

The technological and engineering leaps of the last two
decades have been poured into everything but fuel economy,
according to the agency's statistics. Since 1981, the
average vehicle has 93 percent more horsepower and is 29
percent faster in going from 0 to 60 miles an hour. It is
also 24 percent heavier, reflecting surging sales of sport
utility vehicles.

But over the same period, fuel economy has stagnated,
contributing heavily to the nation's rising oil
consumption. Cars and light trucks - S.U.V.'s, pickups and
minivans - account for about 40 percent of the nation's oil
consumption and a fifth of its carbon dioxide emissions,
which many scientists see as the leading contributor to
global warming.

Environmentalists, frustrated by years of legislative
defeats and a recent retreat by the Ford Motor Company on a
pledge that it would improve the fuel economy of its
S.U.V.'s, were further exasperated by the report.

"Without being forced to improve fuel economy by the
government, the auto industry doesn't do it," said Daniel
Becker, the top global warming expert for the Sierra Club.
"Congress has to require energy savings in the energy bill
that comes to the floor next week or the auto industry will
continue to go in reverse."

The report also said that fuel economy could have improved
33 percent since 1981 if performance and weight of vehicles
had been held constant.

But Gloria J. Bergquist, the vice president for
communications at the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers,
the industry's chief political lobbying group, said the
industry could not force consumers to buy fuel-efficient
vehicles.

"We have 30 models that get over 30 miles per gallon, but
the top 10 most fuel-efficient vehicles are less than 2
percent of sales," she said. "I would call this report a
consumer sales report. It shows what consumers are buying."


In his first speech today as the new chairman of General
Motors, Rick Wagoner, who will continue to serve as chief
executive, said "the only solution to this tough dilemma of
improving fuel economy and reducing emissions in the
intensely price-competitive and very low-cost-energy
environment here in the U.S. is through technology."

He singled out the potential of hydrogen-powered fuel
cells, a clean energy source, which have been a favorite
technology of the Bush administration. But many analysts
say fuel-cell cars are years, if not decades, away from
mass production.

The E.P.A. report came several months later than usual and
was somewhat controversial because the agency changed its
normal reporting procedures. Instead of reporting only fuel
economy changes for the 2002 model year, weighted for
sales, the agency also included results for the 2003 model
year based on the industry's own sales projections from
last September.

By that reckoning, average fuel economy will show its first
improvement in more than two decades in the 2003 model
year. But the agency said there was a margin for error
large enough to swing the results to a loss. And sales
trends this year have also not appeared to favor energy
conservation.

Light trucks continue to gobble up more of the market than
more fuel-efficient passenger cars. Sales of the biggest
S.U.V.'s, like the Lincoln Navigator and the Chevrolet
Suburban, rebounded from a sluggish first quarter with a
strong showing last month.

Further worsening fuel economy statistics are the
aggressive moves by Asian automakers into S.U.V.'s of all
sizes, with the next battleground being drawn over the last
stronghold of Detroit, the pickup truck.

In the 2002 model year, fuel economy averaged 20.4 miles a
gallon, the lowest since the fleet averaged 19.2 miles a
gallon in 1980. Fuel economy peaked at 22.1 miles a gallon
in 1988 but has mostly fallen since.

The agency predicts fuel economy will rise to 20.8 miles a
gallon in the 2003 model year, with a 0.5 mile a gallon
margin for error. Cars are expected to average 24.8 miles a
gallon, compared with 19.6 for minivans, 17.8 for S.U.V.'s
and 16.8 for pickups.

David Friedman, a senior policy analyst for the Union of
Concerned Scientists, said the report's new methodology
"raises a lot of questions."

"I'm very skeptical of their use of the 2003 model year
information," he said, adding that "it's difficult to come
to any conclusions about any model year before the model
year is over."

Conversations with people at the environmental agency who
were briefed on the decision to offer 2003 figures
indicated that it was not politically motivated but was
done in part to prevent news organizations from doing their
own projections.

Donald Zinger, the assistant director of the E.P.A.'s
office of transportation and air quality, said "some people
tried to do it themselves and got all messed up and came
out with numbers that were inaccurate."

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/05/03/business/03FUEL.html?ex=1053169642&ei=1&en=8b3daa617032cdf3